Hi all, it’s Monday morning.
And the war in Iran continues to escalate.
We’re starting the week with sobering news: the number of American troops killed in this conflict has risen to four after a service member who had been critically wounded succumbed to their injuries, per CENTCOM. In total, 18 U.S. service members are now listed as seriously wounded.
At the same time this update came in, Donald Trump was signaling that escalation, not restraint, is the plan. Over the weekend and into this morning, he made clear he is not ruling out sending U.S. ground forces into Iran.
Meanwhile, the situation on the battlefield and across the region is deteriorating. Fast.
Iranian forces struck a U.S.-flagged oil tanker in Bahrain, setting it on fire in port. Satellite imagery also shows extensive damage at Naval Support Activity Bahrain, the headquarters of the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, after recent attacks.
U.S. installations across the Middle East are now operating under Threat Condition Bravo, indicating a high risk of further hostile activity.
Iran’s leadership is also making clear they are preparing for a long fight. A top Iranian national security official announced that Tehran will not negotiate with the United States and is ready for a sustained conflict. The message coming from Iran is not one of retreat, despite Trump’s threats.
At the same time, tensions are spilling beyond direct combat.
Russia has confirmed it is in continuous contact with Iranian leadership and has condemned the U.S. campaign as aggression. China is signaling support as well. What began as a regional conflict is increasingly drawing in global powers.
Inside the Pentagon this morning, the tone was equally stark. The Trump regime’s incompetence was also on full display.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Kaine warned that this operation could stretch on for weeks or months. Kaine acknowledged that additional losses are expected as the mission unfolds.
When pressed on how long the war may last, Hegseth exploded at an NBC reporter, calling it a “gotcha” question, and randomly started talking about Joe Biden.
Here’s the full quote:
“Typical NBC sort of gotcha type question. President Trump has all the latitude in the world to talk about how long it may or may not take—four weeks, two weeks, six weeks. It could move up. It could move back. We’re going to execute at his command the objectives we’ve set out to achieve. What he has shown an ability to do that other presidents can’t quite seem to have the aperture to do—Joe Biden didn’t even know what he was doing—is to look for opportunities and off ramps and escalations for the United States that creates new opportunities to execute what we need on our own timeline. So you can play games about four weeks, five weeks. He has all the latitude, and I’m glad he does because there’s no better communicator than our president expressing those things.”
A dangerous friendly-fire incident also underscored how volatile the environment has become. Kuwaiti air defenses mistakenly shot down three U.S. F-15 teams. All aircrew were able to eject safely.
On the diplomatic front, allies are beginning to distance themselves from the U.S. campaign.
Spain’s prime minister has barred the United States from using Spanish bases to conduct strikes on Iran. France, meanwhile, announced it will expand its nuclear arsenal and stop publicly disclosing its stockpile size, a significant shift in policy amid rising global tensions.
The international landscape is shifting in real time.
Back in Washington, the Trump regime’s messaging is all over the place.
Some officials are framing the mission as supporting freedom for the Iranian people. Others insist regime change is not the objective. At the same time, Trump has floated using Venezuela as a model, suggesting the U.S. could identify a new leadership figure in Iran from within the Iranian regime, and build support around them.
The Trump regime’s timelines are also all over the place. Trump has reportedly discussed a range of potential durations with different outlets — from a matter of days to several weeks — without a clearly defined strategic endpoint.
Here’s a damning recap from The Economist’s Middle East correspondent, Gregg Carlstrom:
This lack of clarity is unfolding alongside increased violence.
Iran is striking targets across the Gulf. The U.S. and Israel are continuing their assault on Iranian military infrastructure. And escalation seems to be a guarantee.
As the week begins, this conflict is already spiraling out of control.
It is widening geographically.
It is hardening politically.
And it is drawing in more actors by the day.
Watch my full video report above.
We’ll continue tracking developments and keep you updated throughout the day.
— Ben
