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SPEAKER 4
We're back with Simon Rosenberg of Hopium Chronicles, Tom Bonior of Target Smart, the best data guys in the game. Let's just go through what we're seeing in the early voting numbers, in the overall polling data that we're seeing both nationally and in the swing states. Simon, we started with Tom last time.
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Let's start with your overall impressions of what's going on, Simon.
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SPEAKER 1
Yeah, look, I think the polling remains remarkably stable and consistent. We've got a two, three, four point national lead in the battleground states. We are in a better position. We're not where we want to be, but we're in a better position than Trump is.

Analyzing the 2024 Election Data: Ben Meiselas Talks to Tom Bonier and Simon Rosenberg on Early Voting and Polling Trends

Simon Rosenberg of Hopium Chronicles and Tom Bonier of TargetSmart break down the latest election data, highlighting trends and key insights just days before the 2024 election.

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Ben Meiselas invited data analysts Tom Bonier of TargetSmart and Simon Rosenberg of Hopium Chronicles to discuss the current state of the 2024 election on Thursday. As early voting surges across the U.S., Bonier and Rosenberg shared insights on the early numbers, campaign strategies, and polling stability in critical battleground states.

Rosenberg opened with an analysis of national polling, which shows a stable three- to four-point lead for Harris over Trump. In the battleground states, Democrats hold a stronger position than anticipated, with Rosenberg optimistic about Democrats’ ability to sway undecided voters in the final days. He highlighted the Harris campaign’s extensive ad presence and strategic voter outreach, which he says contributes to a positive momentum.

Bonier agreed, emphasizing that the early voting numbers show encouraging signs for Democrats, despite some Republican-leaning narratives. Using TargetSmart’s early voting data, Bonier pointed out that Democrats are performing as well or better in key battleground states compared to 2020. He addressed the media’s tendency to focus on national early voting stats, which often skew Republican. According to Bonier, the real story lies in battleground states, where Democratic turnout is outperforming expectations in critical areas like Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

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Both analysts also explored the trend of Republican “crossover” voters. Bonier’s data indicates that Republicans voting early this year are more likely to vote for Harris than for Trump, a trend supported by polling from multiple outlets. Rosenberg connected this trend to voter sentiment, noting that many moderate Republicans and independents are repelled by Trump’s rhetoric and gravitating toward Harris. According to internal campaign data, Harris has concentrated her outreach on this persuadable Republican demographic, aided by high-profile Republican endorsements like Liz Cheney.

Additionally, Bonier highlighted a significant gender gap in early voting. Women, particularly younger voters and seniors, are turning out in high numbers across battleground states, a continuation of the “Dobbs effect” seen in 2022. This surge is particularly notable among women over 65 and young women who are highly motivated by reproductive rights and the desire to protect the progress made over recent decades.

As the election draws closer, Bonier and Rosenberg urged voters to remain active and avoid despair, reminding viewers of targeted efforts to discourage Democratic turnout. Bonier underscored that voter suppression tactics and inflated polling from GOP sources aim to dampen enthusiasm for Harris. Rosenberg pointed out that MAGA polls have been used strategically to skew averages, making it appear as though Trump is leading. He emphasized that without these “red wave” polls, the race actually leans toward Harris.

Concluding the interview, Meiselas shared anecdotes from long-time Republicans who are voting blue in 2024, representing what Bonier and Rosenberg called the “common-sense” voter — someone who is motivated by stability, democracy, and a desire to move away from the divisiveness of the Trump years. With the election in its final stretch, all three stressed the importance of remaining engaged and focused on mobilizing every potential voter.

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Discussion about this video

User's avatar
Kathleen Thuman's avatar

Thank you thank you thank you!! I feel better. What a great analysis by true experts. I’m a lifelong Independent since 1971 and have voted for candidates of both parties, but I will not vote for ANY Republican until MAGA is eliminated.

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Susan Klemetsen's avatar

Thank you, Kathleen!

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Kathy J's avatar

So happy for the three of you. Great work. It's helpful to remind people about the red polling skewing what polls look like. Many people don't understand that part of it. I read comments all over Substack and other social media, with people freaking out over the polls, which is what they want us to do. Usually, there is someone who knows about this that will set the record straight.

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Marsha S McLaurin's avatar

I have been trying to amplify the Polymarket effect and the red polls flooding in, it was like a swoch got flipped abou 3 weeks ago...Harris was 2=3pts up in the Nat'l and many battlegounds...then this unexplained surge for Trump. This while he was doing everything wrong! They ar gaming the system to build their rigged vote scenario!

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Reid McClure's avatar

Excellent work Ben, Tom and Simon!!! Thank you! MTN you Rock!!!!

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Teri's avatar

This time Elon Musk is paying people, and there have been instances of ballot box burning, etc. by people proven to be Repubicans and/or MAGA members.

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Thom Belford's avatar

CNN reports Trump $2B in debt. Is he vulnerable to influence. Putin, Musk, etc.

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Marsha S McLaurin's avatar

Thanks Meidas for that analysis///best I have felt in a while! none of the polls make sense to me, I am in Florida and the yard sign battle here is remarkable/ Always has been Trump everywhere, not this time Harris leads the sign coumt about 8-2! Plus I have felt there is a good Republican crossover vote that polls aren't refecting!

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Susan Klemetsen's avatar

Thank goodness! I thought a lot of Republicans were voting for Harris because I've heard so many say they are! So glad to see it's really happening. I am SO grateful for our citizens who have integrity! We MUST win.

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Beatrice Murch (she/her)'s avatar

Thank you for your excellent analysis. I have included it in my humble writeup:

https://blmurch.substack.com/p/women-are-motivated-in-this-election

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Warren Knight's avatar

Regardless of the policies of the Republican parties policies it can't get past the fact that Trump is in severe mental decline talking rubbish and spewing endless lies and hate.I find it impossible to believe any sane american could vote for him.The sycophants who suck up to him will replace honest people in the government I shudder to think what will become of the mighty USA if Kamala doesn't win.Go girl go.You will be the salvation of America.

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Richard E. Duggan's avatar

Mahalo for spreading truth and hope!

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Richard E. Duggan's avatar

Mahalo for spreading truth and hope!

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Debra MacKillop's avatar

how are Democrats doing in PA?

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Debra MacKillop's avatar

one question: is it accurate to compare early GOP vote in 2020 (which may have been for Biden since trump pushed waiting until election day), to early GOP vote in 2024 (now that trump is encouraging early voting) and assume it is for Democrats?

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Ian's avatar

It is a relatively safe assumption that a significant number of them are voting D this year.

As mentioned, this is supported by EV exit polling, but the red counties with EV surges are counties where Nikki Haley got a good percentage of the primary votes. Are all of them voting Harris, or even half? No, of course not, but it just takes a small percentage.

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0:25
SPEAKER 1
Yeah, look, I think the polling remains remarkably stable and consistent. We've got a two, three, four point national lead in the battleground states. We are in a better position. We're not where we want to be, but we're in a better position than Trump is.