By Joe Plenzler, co-host of Meidas Defense
Meidas Defense recently sat down with one of our nation’s leading experts on Iran - the Washington Post’s former Tehran bureau chief, Jason Rezaian. Jason literally knows the Iranian government inside and out, as he was held prisoner there by the regime for 544 days. Here, he provides his deep insight into the brewing conflict and its potential impacts on the region, Europe, and the US. This is what I learned.
The waters off Iran are once again churning with the wake of American carrier strike groups. As the “war clouds” gather, the United States finds itself teetering on the edge of a familiar, bloody precipice. But as Jason Rezaian—who spent 18 months in the bowels of Evin Prison—rightly points out, the greatest threat to American interests and Iranian lives isn’t a lack of firepower; it’s a profound, persistent deficit of strategy.
The current crisis is a two-track tragedy. On one hand, the Islamic Republic remains the “granddaddy of state-sponsored terror,” a regime that has refined the art of asymmetrical warfare and hostage-taking since 1979. On the other hand, the regime is currently overseeing a domestic massacre, having recently slaughtered thousands of its own citizens who rose up against economic ruin and systemic repression. President Trump urged Iranian civilians to protest and then did nothing as they were massacred by the thousands.
We are at a crossroads where “kinetic action”—the military’s preferred euphemism for a bombing campaign—feels like an easy answer to a complex question. However, we must resist the urge to believe we can shoot our way to a stable outcome. As we learned at the cost of 7,091 American dead and more than 53,000 wounded servicemembers in Iraq and Afghanistan (and $6 trillion blown), it is remarkably easy to break a government and exceptionally difficult to rebuild a country.
The Intelligence Gap
Despite Iran being a “top three” national security challenge for decades, our understanding of its internal power structures remains dangerously thin. We lack diplomatic relations, and more importantly, we lack “touch points” with the Iranian people. The State Department and the Pentagon have chronically under-resourced their Iran desks - lacking the very expertise required to navigate a post-Islamic Republic transition.
We have a massive, educated, and wealthy Iranian diaspora—many of whom travel back and forth frequently—yet the U.S. government has failed to create a space where this human capital can be harnessed without the fear of being “pigeonholed” by political optics.
The Cost of Insufficient Diplomacy
Perhaps the most damaging aspect of our current approach is the erosion of trust. For decades, the Iranian public has been perhaps the most reliably pro-American population in the Middle East, harboring a deep fascination with American culture and ideals. Yet, time and again, Washington has played the role of Lucy with the football—urging Iranians to rise up, promising support, and then standing by as they are mowed down by the Revolutionary Guard.
If we ask the Iranian people to risk everything for a “rules-based system,” we must be prepared to offer more than just rhetoric. Supporting civil society means:
Ensuring Internet Connectivity: In 2026, there is no excuse for allowing the regime to conduct massacres under the cover of a digital blackout.
Easing Visas for Dissidents: We must provide a legitimate path for those fighting for democracy to find refuge and contribute to the dialogue.
Planning for Succession: With the Supreme Leader now 86, the system faces an inevitable succession crisis. We need “game theory” and modeling for those outcomes now, not after the fact.
Conclusion
The Islamic Republic is a sinking ship, but a sinking ship can still cause a massive undertow. If the regime feels an existential threat, we can expect “mass havoc”—from swarmed drones in the Straits of Hormuz to cyber-attacks on our power grids.
The best outcome is an Iran freed from theocratic ideologues and allowed to flourish as a center of civilization. But we will not reach that end state through military action alone. We need a combination of pressure and sophisticated engagement that forces Iran to play by “big boy rules” while authentically backing the people who will actually have to live there when the smoke clears.
What can you do?
Democracy isn’t a spectator sport, and Congress is supposed to work for you, not the wealthy donors, corporations, and special interest groups who line their pockets. Let your members of Congress know your thoughts. Find your elected officials here https://www.usa.gov/elected-officials
Joe Plenzler is a combat-decorated U.S. Marine Corps veteran, communication expert, entrepreneur, and co-host of the Meidas Defense Podcast.
